Opposition Leader Tony Abbott leaves the stage after talking at the Brisbane Convention & Exhibition Centre on July 25, 2013 in Brisbane. Picture: Getty Images Source: Getty Images
TONY Abbott has been the most ferocious and disciplined Opposition Leader of his age and will now test whether voters believe he can also be an effective Prime Minister.
Mr Abbott will have to confront that Liberal bogey, "the unlosable election", 20 years after it wrecked John Hewson's bid to oust an unpopular Labor government headed by Paul Keating.
Mr Abbott worked for Dr Hewson in that period and has skilfully avoided repeating his mistakes: Simple statements and no complex policy blueprint, for starters.
However, the return of Kevin Rudd to the Labor leadership has narrowed the comfort zone Mr Abbott and the Coalition enjoyed while Julia Gillard was Prime Minister.
Like Kevin Rudd, Mr Abbott has removed two Labor leaders to reach this election. The first was Kevin Rudd, who became Prime Minister at the 2007 election which saw off Mr Abbott's mentor John Howard.
In late November, 2009, the Coalition was rating just 35 per cent of primary votes as recorded by Newspoll. That's when Mr Abbott took the Opposition Leader's job from Malcolm Turnbull in a bitter internal brawl over climate change policy.
Seven months later in June 2010, the Coalition's primary vote was at 40 per cent and the ALP was rattled enough to oust Kevin Rudd.
The 2010 election called with a rush by an ill-prepared Julia Gillard was inconclusive and it seemed Mr Abbott was set to become Prime Minister if only he could get an election called. Ms Gillard kept her minority government together and refused to oblige.
By mid-June this year Mr Abbott had 48 per cent of the primary vote, and it was Ms Gillard's turn to be evicted from the PM's office, to make way for her predecessor Mr Rudd. The seven-month contest between the two men was renewed.
Mr Abbott will face a government which has admitted unemployment will be well above six per cent soon, economic growth will slow, and its calculations of revenue are out by roughly $100 billion over projections for four years. That would seem to make this showdown a certainty for the Coalition, but there is that unlosable election bogey. Mr Abbott doesn't have the personal popularity of Mr Rudd.
In 1993 Australia was still bleeding from a Keating-induced recession and on the Thursday before polling day official figures showed an unemployment rate of 11.1 per cent and in raw figures more than one million Australians out of work.
Two days later Paul Keating was returned.
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